It’s very simple for the United States on Tuesday against Iran in the 2022 World Cup. Win, or go home.
Three of the four teams in Group B — the US, England and Iran — are still alive for two spots in the round of 16. The scenarios are straightforward.
An Iran or US win gets either through. A win or draw from England puts the Three Lions into the knockout stage. The Americans can still win the group with a victory and an England loss to Wales, or an England draw and a US win by at least four goals.
But no scoreboard-watching here. The matches take place at the same time.
Here are the biggest moments and top plays from the final day in Group B play.
First half
28th minute: Dest and Robinson have featured prominently in the Americans’ attack so far, and the opportunities are piling up. However, their willingness to get forward has given Iran the invitation to break into space left behind by the defenders, and the Iranians had one threatening counterattack to show for it. It’s the US, though, who are firmly in control through the first half hour — but, crucially, have nothing to show for it.
18th minute: The US are beginning to poke and prod the Iranian defense, searching for vulnerabilities, and those vulnerabilities appear to be in wide areas. Full-backs Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest have each swung in dangerous crosses, Christian Pulisic had a headed attempt worth 0.09 xG, but there’s no breakthrough yet — even if the Americans’ knock on the door is getting increasingly more forceful.
9th minute: The opening minutes of this game have been the usual feeling-out process, but the intensity is such that the game looks like it’s being played at 1.5x speed. The Americans have a nearly two-to-one possession advantage, which comes as no surprise, but both teams have been full of direct, purposeful running.
That tension is reflected in the stands. The noise has been constant so far.
Pregame breakdown
Set aside the off-the-field controversies that have steadily built between these two teams throughout this tournament. The stakes of this game — win and you’re in — create plenty of drama on their own, and for a US team that can’t even afford a draw, the mountain they have to climb might be looking increasingly steep as they walk out of the tunnel at Al Thumama Stadium.
Let’s start with the selection, because it’s both unsurprising and simultaneously head-scratching. The starting XI for the US is largely unchanged from the first two games, with one exception.
Josh Sargent returns to the starting lineup, despite a largely ineffective 81 minutes split between games against Wales and England. Haji Wright made even less of an impact in his start vs. the Three Lions, so a change up top wasn’t unexpected, but to return to Sargent — when coach Gregg Berhalter had consistently selected Jesus Ferreira throughout this cycle — is a curious choice.
The most jarring decision comes at the back, where Cameron Carter-Vickers slots into the heart of the defense alongside Tim Ream, at the expense of Walker Zimmerman. Zimmerman did concede the penalty converted by Gareth Bale to earn Wales a draw in that opening game of the Americans’ tournament, but apart from that, the two-time MLS Defender of the Year has been very solid in a back line that’s arguably been this team’s bright spot in Qatar. Carter-Vickers and Ream have never played together, and the Celtic center-back has only appeared for the USMNT three times in 2022 (in the Nations League against El Salvador and Grenada, and a friendly vs. Morocco).
Oh, and the crowd inside Al Thumama Stadium are decidedly pro-Iran, at least based off the noise made when the teams took to the pitch for warmups.
There’s no room for error for the Americans. Has Berhalter already made one in discarding Zimmerman?
Lineups
The youngest starting XI at #Qatar2022 thus far. 🇺🇸
Full Lineup Notes » https://t.co/QTnkPEKnw2 #USMNT x @Visa pic.twitter.com/TaaG7eI52N
— U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team (@USMNT) November 29, 2022
📋 We’ve got team news from #IRN and #USA#FIFAWorldCup | #Qatar2022
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 29, 2022
Presidential support
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/cAVGtnuJ90
— U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team (@USMNT) November 29, 2022
Fans show up
.@tedlasso that you? pic.twitter.com/sUQ83hlVxa
— U.S. Soccer (@ussoccer) November 29, 2022
Growing controversy
After a US Soccer Federation social media account briefly displayed Iran’s flag without the emblem of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s government reacted by accusing US Soccer of removing the name of God from their national flag, and the Iranian football federation said their country will lodge a complaint with FIFA. A report from The Associated Press said Iran was also threatening legal action.
The USSF said in a statement Sunday morning that it decided to forgo the official flag on social media accounts to show “support for the women in Iran fighting for basic human rights.”
The posts were eventually taken down and the flag’s emblem was restored. A US spokesperson said the USSF still supports the protesters in Iran, and US defender Walker Zimmerman emphasized that the team is focused on Tuesday but remains in support of women’s rights.
“I think it’s such a focused group on the task at hand, but at the same time we empathize, and we are firm believers in women’s rights and support them,” Zimmerman said.