And then there were eight. With Round 1 of the MLS Cup playoffs in the rear-view mirror, Jason Davis and Arch Bell detail the four Conference Semifinal matches taking place on Wednesday and Thursday night. Who will move on to the final four?
Jump to: NYCFC vs. Toronto | Seattle vs. Salt Lake | Atlanta vs. Philadelphia | LAFC vs. Galaxy
Oct. 23, 7:00 p.m. ET
Backstory: NYCFC are one of the richest clubs in MLS and play in the biggest market. While they can boast resources as good as any in the league, the recent trend in the Bronx is one of leveraging the City Football Group scouting network to sign under-the-radar talents. Playoff glory is still yet to be achieved.
Toronto got back to the playoffs and back to winning in the playoffs in the first round. That it managed the feat without Jozy Altidore and Omar Gonzalez will only boost confidence ahead of a conference semifinal showdown with NYCFC. It’s all hands on deck for the Reds.
Playoff path: The top team in the Eastern Conference earned its way to the No. 1 seed with a remarkably consistent regular season and a well-balanced team that went down the roster for contributions. NYCFC took full advantage of their unique home field but was also the best team in the conference on the road.
It took the Reds more than 90 minutes to get going, but when they did, the dam burst. What was an overly tight affair for Greg Vanney’s liking turned into a rout in the first stanza of extra time. If there’s a lesson for Toronto, it’s that there is enough talent in the team to overcome high profile absences.
Connecting thread: Both these teams reached the playoffs thanks in large part to the creative abilities of their playmaking dynamos. For NYCFC, it’s Maxi Moralez, the league assist king from the hole in NYCFC’s formation. For TFC, it’s Alejandro Pozuelo, a 2019 newcomer who will pop up anywhere on the field but is often pushed out wide.
Tactical contrast: NYCFC keeps the ball. Using a flexible system that aims to generate fluid soccer, Domenec Torrent’s team works forward by staying committed to a shape that still allows for freedom of movement to get the ball in dangerous areas. Players will interchange within the shape, making it a difficult task to defend them.
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TFC’s tactics are something of a mystery without Altidore in the lineup. With him, the focus is on playing off his hold-up abilities, with runners latching onto passes and flick-ons. Without him, the attack is a hodgepodge. Defensively, pushing the full-backs high up the field could open up space in behind.
Headaches: Just about the only thing that could be termed a “headache” for NYCFC is the unfamiliar venue that will serve as “home” for their first playoff match. The decision to move the game to Citi Field proved not to be necessary — the Yankees will only watch the World Series rather than participate in it — but was made with lead time in mind.
Toronto’s goal explosion against D.C. will paper over the gigantic crack left by Altidore’s absence. Against a team able to dictate terms like NYCFC, the lack of a point forward like Altidore will be more difficult to overcome. Set pieces and quality finishing carried the day on Saturday: Can TFC do it again?
Star man: Spotlight on Michael Bradley, TFC’s man in the middle. Although he’s not as athletic as he once was, the U.S. international is still a force to be reckoned with as a passer. It was Bradley’s vision that started the sequence that led to Richie Laryea‘s goal in extra time, sparking the win over D.C.
With Moralez’s influence already mentioned, Brazilian forward Heber gets the nod for NYCFC’s star play. A versatile and multi-talented presence up front, Heber has been a hit in the Bronx with his smart play and quality finishing. He averaged nearly a goal a game in 2019.
Where it will be won: The cliche holds that games are won in the midfield because it’s largely true. In this case, it’s up to Bradley — with help from Marky Delgado — to slow down NYCFC through the center of the field. If Bradley is easily bypassed and the home team finds space in front of the backline, watch out.
X factor: NYCFC’s Anton Tinnerholm is an end-to-end full-back who provides width in the attack while rarely taking a step wrong on the defensive end. Covering ground at Yankee Stadium is a little easier because there’s isn’t all that much of it — will Tinnerholm’s game be as strong at Citi Field?
Richie Laryea came off the bench and scored the eventual winner for TFC against D.C. United. Vanney may turn to the Canadian forward again to give his team life if the attach founders without Altidore up top.
NYCFC will win because: They have the better team and an understanding of Torrent’s system that can make them irresistible at times. Playing in awkward confines is nothing new for them and though they’ve swapped one baseball stadium for another, no one else can claim such familiarity.
Toronto will win because: They’re feeling good about themselves and can point to several in-form attackers after the victory on Saturday. There’s enough depth to weather some injuries and Vanney knows how to coach in the postseason.
Prediction: New York City FC 2-0 Toronto FC — Jason Davis (@davisjsn)
Oct. 23, 10:00 p.m. ET
Backstory: For Seattle, the surreal basically serves as their normal when it comes to the MLS postseason, and Saturday’s extra-time win over FC Dallas embodied that. But the one constant is belief and the Sounders have that in spades, none more so than head coach Brian Schmetzer, who almost always seems to pull the right strings.
This season, Real Salt Lake have been a team that rises up when things are rocky, and Saturday’s playoff win over Portland was the perfect example. Just when you think RSL are headed for disaster, they survive.
Playoff path: Seattle reached this phase of the postseason with one of the nuttiest games you’ll ever see. Twice they coughed up leads at home to Dallas only to emerge with a 4-3 triumph. The hero with a hat trick was Jordan Morris, who is staking an early claim that these will be his playoffs.
After coasting to a 1-0 halftime lead in the first round against Portland, RSL can count themselves lucky that the Timbers rallied to tie before Jefferson Savarino‘s late winner punched RSL’s ticket to Wednesday night’s date in Seattle with a 2-1 victory.
Connecting thread: This will be the second playoff matchup between the two sides. RSL won the previous one 3-2 on aggregate in 2011. During the regular season the teams split, with Seattle winning 1-0 at home and RSL a 3-0 victory in front of the home fans.
Tactical contrast: This stands to be an intriguing matchup pitting a very direct Seattle Sounders attack against a pretty solid defensive front for Real Salt Lake. RSL gave up just 41 goals during the regular season and they won’t be allowing the same gaps and spaces that a young FC Dallas side conceded on Saturday.
Seattle’s defense reverted to their midseason struggles by giving up set piece goals against the Texans, and RSL’s attacking quartet of Savarino, Albert Rusnak, Damir Kreilach and Corey Baird have the goods in that area to punish the hosts.
Headaches: RSL interim coach Freddy Juarez is going to be really tempted to slot in the previously out-of-favor Joao Plata for Baird. Plata replaced Baird in Saturday night’s game in the 77th minute and completely changed things for RSL, leading eventually to the Savarino winner.
Victor Rodriguez came on as a substitute in the second to firm up a Sounders midfield that was starting to suffer against Dallas and did well. Joevin Jones was terrific in the first half but tailed off. It all could lead to Schmetzer doing some reshuffling and moving Rodriguez back into the starting XI over Jones.
Star man: The big players make big plays at the big moments and that’s what Savarino did with his late strike against Portland. Now going against a Seattle defense that raises red flags, Savarino should have the time and space to do some damage.
A playoff hat trick is no easy feat, so no doubt for Seattle this distinction belongs to Morris. He fulfills the role of goal scorer to a tee by getting the ball in the back of the net, even if it comes while he’s sitting on his backside.
Where it will be won: The RSL midfield faced questions going into the Portland game and emerged alive, but the Seattle midfield poses another hurdle. With the slightest lapse or giveaway at the center stripe, Seattle can break and put teams to the sword. How RSL handle their midfield and leverage a strong back four to limit Seattle’s counters will decide this one.
X factor: Kreilach has become the new Mr. October. The Croatian has played in four MLS playoffs games and has four goals after finding the back of the net against Portland on Saturday. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, Jones is likely to feature and if he does, he can change the game with his ability to push forward and send balls into the box.
Seattle will win because: The Sounders’ superiority in midfield becomes too much for the RSL defense to hold down for a full 90 minutes, leading to a straightforward win for the hosts.
Salt Lake will win because: Savarino continues to wave his magic wand and produces something special, while the RSL back line locks down Morris and the Seattle attack.
Prediction: Seattle Sounders 2-0 Real Salt Lake — Arch Bell (@ArchBell)
Oct. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET (watch live on ESPN2)
Backstory: Atlanta took the first step toward a repeat on Saturday with the win over New England, but there’s something of an ominous vibe around the champs. The loss of Miles Robinson before the playoffs started and the late-game injury to Michael Parkhurst suddenly have Frank de Boer dealing with a defensive crisis.
Ten seasons in, the Union have their first-ever playoff victory. The incredible comeback nature of that win has only lifted Philadelphia higher as they head to a hostile environment to take on last year’s champions. Jim Curtin’s team has confidence and a health advantage on their side and that makes them dangerous.
Playoff path: It was never going to be easy against a Bruce Arena-coached team. The narrow victory against the Revs did belie the chances Atlanta managed to generate, particularly through Ezequiel Barco and Josef Martinez. There should be no doubt that Atlanta is the favorite on Thursday.
The Union had effectively zero momentum going into the playoffs and still managed to fight back from two goals down on two occasions to beat the Red Bulls. In contrast to the remaining teams in the East, Philly is a side with no true stars — four different players found the net in the win over New York.
Connecting thread: Few teams in MLS are lucky enough to have one player who represents the club’s heart and soul. As different as they are, Atlanta and Philadelphia each have that player in Martinez and Alejandro Bedoya, respectively. Whatever goes down on Thursday, those two figure to be at the center of it.
Tactical contrast: De Boer’s shift late in the match against New England allowed goal scorer Franco Escobar to range forward and find space behind defense, indicating a tactical flexibility that will likely come into play against on Thursday. Atlanta will control possession and try to play to the feet of Barco as much as possible.
Against the Red Bulls, Philly moved to a system in the second half that allowed it to spread out a tired team. On the road in Atlanta, Curtin might take a more conservative approach, sitting in the 4-4-2 diamond to slow down Atlanta’s transitions through midfield.
Headaches: Center-back injuries. Already missing Robinson, Atlanta could be without Parkhurst for the remainder of the playoffs after the veteran defender dislocated his shoulder on Saturday. De Boer will have to get creative to cover for the pair of absences by leaning on United’s depth.
Andre Blake‘s form is a concern going into Thursday’s match after the former Goalkeeper of the Year struggled against the Red Bulls. The comeback win overshadowed Blake’s poor day, but it seems unlikely he can get away with a similar performance against Atlanta United.
Star man: Everyone knows about Martinez’s goal threat, but the key to Atlatna unlocking Philly’s defense and advancing to a conference final is Barco. The Argentine attacker came into his own this season and played the pass that led to Escobar’s game-winner against the Revolution.
Marco Fabian was supposed to be more than a bench player when he arrived in Philadelphia. His winner against the Red Bulls shows he still has the ability to change the game, even if he’s relegated to a substitute role. If Philly is going to spring an upset in Atlanta, Fabian will need to do it again.
Where it will be won: United’s wing play can be devastating, thanks to the talents of players like Justin Meram and Julian Gressel. With Barco’s abilities in the open field, the game could be decided by the Union’s ability to slow down that trio and prevent Martinez from getting free runs that result in scoring chances.
X factor: Darlington Nagbe, shooter. Although Nagbe’s role doesn’t require him to be a goal threat, he is known to occasionally pop up with a surprise shot. The midfielder came close against New England and his ability to test Blake from distance with a low, hard shot could be a factor.
Ilsinho’s exploits off the bench are near-legendary in Philadelphia at this point. With his ability to beat defenders in 1-v-1 situations, the Brazilian can change a game at a moment’s notice. If the Union are in the game in the second half, Ilsinho will have something to say about the outcome.
Atlanta will win because: The unrelenting energy of its attacking group. At their best, United come at teams in waves that are difficult to handle for even the best defenses. Philadelphia has momentum, but this Atlanta team has homefield advantage and more than enough weapons to put them to the sword.
Philadelphia will win because: The energy from Sunday’s win carries over to a full team effort at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Blake stands on his head. Ilsinho and Fabian conjure magic off the bench. It’s the playoffs and anything can happen.
Prediction: Atlanta United 2-1 Philadelphia Union — Jason Davis
Oct. 24, 10:30 p.m. ET (watch live on ESPN)
Backstory: LAFC have been the best team in MLS all season and arrive into the encounter as the top seed in the west after a 72-point regular-season haul to set a league record. It has been a roller-coaster season for a Galaxy side that have their fair share of shortcomings, but still with an unwavering belief that when it comes to facing their city rivals, they will never lose.
Playoff path: LAFC begin their second-ever postseason campaign with a full 18 days of rest, for better or worse, and a chance to extinguish the ghosts of last year’s wildcard loss to Real Salt Lake. The Galaxy won for just the second time in their past 10 road games in Sunday’s 2-1 win over Minnesota United in Round 1.
Connecting thread: With LAFC still new to MLS waters, this marks the first ever playoff match between the two, however there is plenty of familiarity. This rivalry is barely 18 months old, but for LAFC fans it feels like a lifetime. Five games, no wins for the boys in black and a lot of heartbreak dished out by Galaxy superstar Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Tactical contrast: Like they have done all season long, expect LAFC to be the team to own the ball in this one, with Eduard Atuesta pulling the strings in midfield to set up the likes of Latif Blessing, Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi against a Galaxy defense that has plenty of holes. However, as they showed in the teams’ 3-3 draw earlier this season, the Galaxy can put teams to the sword when they break in transition. If LAFC get caught out, a historical season could come to a crashing halt.
Headaches: The injury to midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye while on international duty with Canada was a setback for LAFC coach Bob Bradley, but they are not the league’s deepest team for nothing. If Kaye is not recovered, there are several options to turn to, with Lee Nguyen the best choice.
After doing some reshuffling for Sunday’s affair in Minnesota, Galaxy coach Guillermo Barros Schelotto will likely make several chances for Thursday, and one player could find himself back in the starting XI is Romain Alessandrini. The Frenchman looked great as a sub against Minnesota in his first match back from injury, and it leaves Barros Schelotto with the hard decision of going with Alessandrini or Uriel Antuna in attack.
Star man: In the history of match previews, there has never been an easier thing to write. Vela had 34 goals and 15 assists for LAFC in 31 games. Ibrahimovic scored 30 goals and dished out seven assists in 29 games for the Galaxy. Fin.
Where it will be won: It is all going to come down to the Galaxy’s ability to defend LAFC’s suffocating attack. LAFC completely overwhelmed the Galaxy in their last meeting in the second half, and if not for some last-ditch clearances from the Galaxy and wayward finishing, LAFC would have broken the spell. Also, if LAFC go up, it will be crucial for them to keep their heads because the slightest hint of a Galaxy comeback could summon the ghosts of Traficos past.
X factor: For all the talk and attention that Ibrahimovic warrants when these two teams meet, Jonathan dos Santos is the key cog in the Galaxy wheel. The Mexico midfielder was running the show when the Galaxy leaped out to a 3-1 lead in their last meeting, but was then kept under wraps in the second half. The more Dos Santos touches the ball for the Galaxy, the better.
Blessing didn’t score his first goal against the Galaxy until the 3-3 draw in late August when he notched a brace, but he has always been a thorn in their side. His movement and ability to get in past defenses wreaks havoc and creates the kind of chaos in front of goal that Vela feeds off of in these games.
LAFC will win because: The mistakes that have felled the Galaxy defense will rear their head against the league’s best attack and LAFC finally break their Trafico curse.
Galaxy will win because: The Galaxy run their offensive transition to perfection and use their existing mental edge to continue LAFC’s Trafico misery.
Prediction: LAFC 5-2 LA Galaxy — Arch Bell